Haypp’s Potential Revenue Boost from Zyn’s Return: A Speculative Outlook for Q3/Q4 2025
We know that Haypp has an estimated 2-3% online penetration in the U.S. nicotine pouch market, though this could already be higher when thinking in LFL terms; possibly closer to 3.5% given recent growth trends and market maturation.
We also know that Zyn sales were roughly $630 million USD in Q2 2025. Before the Zyn shortage, Zyn represented a large part of Haypp’s US sales; specifically around 46% based on prior reports.
However, there also might have been some lost customers during the shortage. Yes, Haypp has their email data and can retarget old customers through loyalty programs and personalized campaigns, but how fast will they come back? Consumer loyalty to Zyn remains strong, with the brand holding a dominant ~70%+ value share in the U.S. market, but rebuilding momentum could take time amid competition from other brands that filled the gap. I assume Haypp will roll out aggressive marketing now that Zyn is back in stock as of September 2025, including discounts, targeted ads, and enhanced same-day delivery options. This will likely hit margins in the short term; Haypp’s Q2 2025 gross margin was a record 19.2%, but increased customer acquisition costs and promotional spending could compress adjusted EBIT margins to around 3-4% temporarily.
Still, it should drive sales volume, especially as non-Zyn pouch sales have already shown resilience with 23% LFL volume growth in Q2. Another positive is that the deal is directly with PM, not third-party distributors; this is ideal for both margins and supply safety.
I would guesstimate Haypp’s sales increase by about 100 MSEK in the coming quarters from Zyn’s return, but it could be twice that (200 MSEK) if the market has matured enough; with online penetration going higher toward 3.5-4% and Haypp ramping up CAC for Q4 to capture holiday demand. The U.S. nicotine pouch market continues to expand rapidly, with projections for significant user growth by 2028.
It is also possible that it doesn’t add all that much directly, as it takes some time to build momentum; and some customers may stick with alternatives. That said, we also know that the Haypp US team has been rapidly expanding, with key hires like a new Head of Legal and Vice President of Regulatory Affairs in July 2025, signaling strong commitment to U.S. growth and good things to come.
Overall, with Zyn shipments projected at 800-840 million cans for 2025 full year and Haypp’s dominant ~75-85% share of the U.S. online channel, the potential upside is substantial; possibly adding 50-150 MSEK in Q4.
Disclaimer: This is a speculative estimate based on available data, trends, and assumptions. Actual results may vary due to market dynamics, regulatory changes, consumer behavior, or supply issues. Not financial advice.