The Next Stage of This Blog
Broader coverage is on the way, with a new section for model-driven stock research and a higher-conviction layer still in development.
For the past year or so, I have been covering Haypp and a range of other stocks through deep dives, market commentary, and notes on my own trading. One part of that work in particular has resonated strongly: web traffic driven analysis of Haypp Group.
Readers of Haypp Watch have repeatedly been able to understand where revenue was likely coming in before earnings and, in doing so, get ahead of the market. Last summer, readers following my work on X would have had a clear chance to avoid the 30%+ drawdown. At the same time, while working on Haypp and other names, I have been building the infrastructure needed to scale this prediction logic across a broader set of companies. That is what this update is about.
What I am working on
When I first started modeling Haypp’s revenue in 2024, the process was still relatively simple. The traffic categorization was rough, the methods were more basic, and much of the work depended on manual judgment. Even so, it worked well enough to do what it was meant to do: get closer to the numbers before the market did.
Over time, that process has become far more sophisticated and granular. The models have improved, the inputs have improved, and much more of the workflow has become automated. I am now at the point where the system can generate predictions with very little manual involvement, and in many cases those predictions have proven better than other estimates available in the market.
That naturally leads to the next challenge. My plan is to scale the same underlying logic across a much broader universe of stocks. Going forward, I will gradually begin adding more companies to the coverage and publishing estimates on a wider range of names where this approach appears to hold predictive power.
At first, that expansion will likely be somewhat messy. Some estimates may not be as refined as the Haypp work has become over time. But I believe the system will continue to improve as it is exposed to more companies, more data, and more edge cases. The long-term goal is to shape it into something that can produce unusually accurate predictions across a much wider set of stocks.
If that works, this Substack will likely look very different a year from now. In the next section, I will outline how I see the future structure of the blog.
How the blog will evolve
Over time, I expect the blog to take on three distinct parts.
The first is legacy content. This will include my existing work on Haypp, along with other topics, ideas, and commentary that I find interesting enough to write about directly.
The second part will be a much broader stock coverage layer. This will live under a new section called Coverage, which is where I will begin publishing model-driven work on a wider set of companies. Depending on how many names I find that genuinely fit the framework, this section could eventually contain anything from a handful of stocks to hundreds. If you want those posts delivered directly to your inbox, you will need to subscribe to the Coverage section separately.
The third part will be the Pro tier. Its purpose will be to extract the most valuable signal from the broader research. As the coverage universe expands, I expect to come across more divergences, more mispricings, and more situations where expectations and reality do not line up. Over time, those more interesting opportunities will increasingly flow into the Pro tier.
If there are specific stocks you would like to see analyzed using web traffic, app download data, or similar forms of alternative data, feel free to leave them in the comments. That is useful input, and I will do my best to bring the most interesting names into the coverage.
The first batch of broader revenue predictions should begin appearing within the next few weeks.
To everyone who has been reading, subscribing, and following the work so far, thank you. The blog would not be where it is today without the interest, feedback, and support it has already received.
A lot more is coming from here. And if there are specific stocks you would like to see covered as the new rollout begins, please leave a comment and let me know which names you would most like to see analyzed.
P.S. A new Haypp revenue prediction will be out in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.