Recursion Pharmaceuticals: The $100 Trillion Pitch ($RXRX)
Unlocking the next wave of human health and economic growth.
If you want to sell your product in today’s world, you need to know Asia inside and out. Why? Because Asia represents almost all of the world’s real growth. By real growth I mean people actually seeing their lives improve: no more starvation, buying their first cars, moving into the middle class. If you want to sell something in the future, you’ll be selling to Asia, because that’s where the customers will be.
But here’s what I don’t hear people talking about: the incoming wave of mass expenditure in genetech. In the West, most material needs are already satisfied; marginal utility is very low. Buying a new iPhone isn’t the difference between life and death. Yet there are still areas where massive marginal gains are possible in the West; most notably in fighting cancer, Alzheimer’s, and heart disease.
In this post, I’ll explore one company with a vision to unlock those gains: Recursion Pharmaceuticals ($RXRX).
AI – The Tool That Hypercharges Biotech
Biotech hasn’t progressed at the same pace as other technologies like the internet or now AI. But that is about to change. The problem is straightforward: DNA and cells are immensely complex. Changing one gene or fixing one mechanism can easily break ten thousand others. Historically, humans have relied on trial-and-error and educated guesses; an approach that is painfully slow and extremely costly due to sky-high failure rates.
I see a different future: silica-based gene design. The digital cell.
The Digital Cell
The concept of the digital cell is simple but revolutionary: creating a computational model of biology that allows us to simulate and test thousands of genetic or chemical interventions before ever touching a real human cell. Instead of spending billions on trial-and-error experiments in the lab, researchers can use massive datasets and AI models to predict outcomes in silico.
This changes everything. A single tweak to a protein can be run through millions of digital scenarios, mapping out not just the intended effect but also the potential side effects across the entire biological system. Drug development moves from “guess and check” to engineering.
The implications are massive. If software can compress decades of biological trial-and-error into weeks of simulation, the economics of drug discovery flip. Costs fall, timelines shorten, and the probability of success rises. The digital cell isn’t just a tool; it’s the foundation of an entirely new industrial revolution in biotech.
So why does this matter?
The digital cell enables silica-based planning. Once that becomes practical, we will likely see a strong positive feedback loop that brings down the cost of curing many major diseases; most importantly cancer.
Here’s how it could work: you are diagnosed with cancer, your DNA is sequenced, and that data is sent to Recursion; or one of its competitors; to be analyzed and digitized. Machine learning models then map the mutations, combinations, and changes unique to your case. From there, AI systems can begin iterating through potential cures, using tools like CRISPR-Cas9 as the backbone of intervention.
This process is essentially like running hundreds of thousands of human trials; but on the computer. The digital cell simulates the outcomes, narrowing down the most promising therapies before any real intervention occurs. By the time a treatment reaches the patient, the risk of failure is dramatically reduced, and the path to a safe and effective cure is faster and cheaper.
In other words, the digital cell isn’t just a scientific milestone; it’s the foundation of a future where personalized cures become both scalable and affordable.
Enter Recursion Pharmaceuticals
And who is leading the race to build one of the first true digital cells? Recursion Pharmaceuticals ($RXRX). The company has amassed one of the largest proprietary biological datasets in the world and built a biotech supercomputer in partnership with NVIDIA. This combination of data scale and compute power gives Recursion a real shot at being the first company to create and commercialize a functioning digital cell.
Of course, it’s worth pointing out that competition exists, and no one has cracked the code yet. These companies are still, by most measures, early-stage startups when it comes to revenue generation and proven products. But Recursion stands out in scale, ambition, and infrastructure.
Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Salt Lake City, Recursion operates at the intersection of biology, chemistry, and machine learning. Its platform uses automated laboratories to generate massive amounts of biological data, which is then analyzed by advanced AI models. The result is a feedback loop where experiments feed data into algorithms, which in turn design new experiments; accelerating the pace of discovery.
Recursion has over 500 employees, a growing pipeline of drug candidates, and partnerships with some of the largest pharma players in the world. Its vision isn’t incremental drug development; it’s to industrialize drug discovery itself.
Value Creation Ability
Techbio is still in its very early stages, but it feels close; if not already at; the tipping point. That creates the potential for incredible stock returns, but it also makes picking the eventual winners extremely difficult. The way I see it, a few traits will ultimately determine who comes out on top:
Data – The quantity and quality of biological data will be crucial. Early access to vast, high-quality datasets provides the training material for machine learning models that could eventually enable the first digital cell; or something close to it.
Compute Power – Even with great data, making sense of biology requires enormous processing power. Partnerships with compute providers like NVIDIA are critical. If running a digital cell simulation takes 50 years, the technology isn’t very useful. The ability to scale compute effectively is a differentiator.
Funding & Leadership – At this stage, techbio is capital intensive. Companies will burn through cash and face dilution. The winners will be those that can consistently convince investors to keep funding the mission. Leadership plays a huge role here: visionary founders and CEOs create belief, which drives reflexivity. A higher valuation attracts more capital, which funds more progress, which further strengthens the company’s position.
In short, the eventual leader in techbio won’t just have a promising technology. It will combine data dominance, scalable compute, and the ability to keep the capital markets on its side.
On the first key trait; data; Recursion has a lot, though not the most. Players like Tempus, for example, have assembled even larger datasets. But in this space, quality and type of data matter as much as scale. Recursion’s focus on high-content cellular imaging gives it a unique edge, producing training data that is highly relevant for building a digital cell rather than just amassing broad genomic records.
On compute power, Recursion is arguably the clear leader. Their partnership with NVIDIA not only provides access to the world’s best GPU infrastructure but also serves as a strong external validation. NVIDIA doesn’t just lend compute; it has taken an equity stake in RXRX, which signals real conviction. That kind of backing is rare in biotech and gives Recursion a serious advantage.
Finally, leadership. There is no doubt that Recursion’s founders and executives have a bold vision. The company consistently frames itself not as a traditional biotech, but as an industrialized techbio platform; a different mindset altogether. That said, determining whether management can execute at scale is still an open question. This isn’t a critique as much as a recognition: in frontier industries, separating raw vision from proven operational competence takes time.
Uncertainty
So here we have a company with the vision and the resources behind it; but also a great deal of uncertainty. I’m writing this post to shine some light on RXRX, a stock that has mostly been ignored outside of a handful of chartists on X.
The way I see Recursion is that it has somewhat good odds of becoming a dominant player in a massive market. At the same time, I fully acknowledge that it is still very early, and the downside risk is significant. My approach is to track and understand the set of companies that could become the foundational techbio enablers. If biotech really does enter its boom phase, where modern diseases like cancer, Alzheimer’s, and heart disease can be systematically addressed, then the winners in this space will capture extraordinary value.
The main risks are clear: being too early, backing the wrong approach, or supporting a business model that doesn’t scale. That said, I believe the timing is beginning to line up, even if it’s still too early to tell who will ultimately pull ahead in the bio-silica race.
This write-up is the first of several. I’ll be covering other companies in the space, like Tempus AI ($TEM), to map the broader field of contenders.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. These are early-stage, high-risk companies, and any views here should be taken with a grain of salt.