MakeMyTrip Watch: Q4 FY2026 Earnings Prediction — Seasonal Dip But Stability Intact
MakeMyTrip revenue prediction
The stock halved over the quarter amid a short-seller report, yet traffic data tells a story of seasonal softness rather than collapse; what does that mean for the print?
This is my first coverage post on MakeMyTrip, so errors are more likely than on names I’ve tracked for quarters; my alt-data read should sharpen as I calibrate against reported results.
The stock dropped 54.5% from January to March, with a critical report stirring controversy. Traffic fell 16.9% QoQ, but the mild 2.8% YoY decline means stability underneath. That mismatch is what caught my eye.
Outlook Snapshot
Q4 FY2026 covers Jan–Mar 2026, the exact window from 2026-01-01 through 2026-03-31.
Last quarter, Q3 FY2026 (Oct–Dec 2025), revenue came in at USD 295.7M.
Earnings are expected around 2026-05-20 per the EODHD calendar; MakeMyTrip has not yet officially announced the day.
How I Get to a Number
I use public web traffic and Android install deltas to read the quarter before MakeMyTrip prints. Every site and app is mapped to an IFRS revenue line — air, hotels, bus, others — then rolled up with seasonal and year-over-year patterns, plus an India events / hotels semantic layer for Hotels and Packages. Walk-forward backtests on prior quarters keep the model honest; the latest group-level MAPE is around 13%, with Hotels the noisiest segment. This is pre-print research, not a trade idea.
App installs held stable, with the main MakeMyTrip app around 900,000 monthly downloads in Jan–Mar 2026.
Goibibo saw 400,000–500,000 per month; RedBus jumped to 2 million in March after 1 million in February.
These deltas mean consistent user acquisition. Not every install converts to revenue, but steady onboarding supports engagement in air, hotels, and bus segments.
The signal matches traffic’s year-over-year stability; that offsets some seasonal web weakness.
Web Traffic Signal
Aggregate traffic fell 16.9% QoQ and 2.8% YoY in Q4 FY2026.
The QoQ decline is seasonal softness. Jan–Mar is consistently weak for Indian travel post-holidays.
Bookmyforex.com jumped from 149.2 million to 203.0 million visits, a sharp anomaly against the broader downtrend.
Revenue steps down from Q3’s USD 295.7M. YoY patterns temper the drop.
Hotels and Packages Read
Signal sources: makemytrip.com, goibibo.com (web) and com.makemytrip, com.goibibo (apps).
This is the revenue heavyweight, contributing about half the group.
Traffic pressure came from seasonality, down 4.9%, but year-over-year patterns add 6.8% and hotels semantic demand lifts another 1.7%, netting to +3.3%.
The segment lands at USD 132.6M, down QoQ yet stable against last year.
Remaining Segments
Air Ticketing
Signal sources: makemytrip.com, goibibo.com (web) and com.makemytrip, com.goibibo (apps).
Air ticketing traffic declined QoQ with seasonal weakness, but year-over-year patterns add a 9.9% lift.
Stable app downloads mean consistent user engagement.
Revenue comes in at USD 63.1M, down QoQ but bolstered by the YoY adjustment.
Bus Ticketing
Signal sources: redbus.in (web) and in.redbus.android (app).
Bus ticketing traffic dropped QoQ from seasonality, down 2.8%, offset by a 10.6% year-over-year lift, netting to +7.4%.
RedBus app installs spiked in March; that brings volatility but late-quarter strength.
The segment adds USD 36.9M.
Others
Signal sources: makemytrip.com, bookmyforex.com, quest2travel.com, goibibo.com, redbus.in (web).
Others held resilient with bookmyforex.com’s traffic spike, diverging positively.
Year-over-year patterns add a 12.0%.
Revenue sits at USD 37.6M, punching above weight this quarter.
Revenue Estimate
My point estimate for Q4 FY2026 is USD 270.3M. Starting from Q3’s USD 295.7M, the QoQ step-down comes from seasonal headwinds across segments. Hotels and Packages contributes USD 132.6M, about 49% of the total, with a net +3.3% from modifiers including seasonality subtracting 4.9%, YoY patterns adding 6.8%, and hotels semantic demand adding 1.7%. Air Ticketing adds USD 63.1M, or 23%, leaning on a 9.9% YoY lift; Bus Ticketing brings USD 36.9M (14%) with a net +7.4% after seasonality’s 2.8% drag and 10.6% YoY offset; Others rounds out at USD 37.6M (14%) via 12.0% YoY patterns.
Traffic drives most of my read, with event and semantic layers fine-tuning Hotels; sensitivities sit in monetization holding against the seasonal dip. The estimate diverges below the full-year street consensus of USD 1.12B from those headwinds.
Methodology Note
These per-segment figures are IFRS operating-segment revenue from MakeMyTrip’s filings; they sum to the group IFRS revenue line.
MakeMyTrip also reports an Adjusted Margin per segment, a non-IFRS metric that subtracts service costs, which differs from revenue.
Both metrics have value, but I use IFRS revenue here to tie directly to consolidated totals.
What the Market Thinks
The EODHD full-year revenue consensus sits at USD 1.12B from 9 analysts, with EPS at 1.6224 from the same group.
The stock fell 54.5% over Jan–Mar 2026, amid controversy from a critical report accusing the company of defying regulators, scamming customers, and padding profits.
Chatter picked up on X, with sentiment split — some defending the financials, others echoing the short-seller allegations.
Notable points: - MakeMyTrip reported its Q3 FY2026 results on January 21, 2026, noting impacts from GST rate reductions on hotel bookings. - The company announced on February 15, 2026, a repurchase right notification for its 0% convertible notes due 2028.
Focus heading into earnings is on hotels growth and addressing the short-seller allegations.
Risk Factors
Deeper seasonal weakness could hit monetization harder than modeled.
If it slips an extra 5% in Hotels and Packages, the estimate drops to around USD 264M.
The short-seller report might erode user trust, leading to lower bookings; if that reduces volumes by 3%, revenue could fall to USD 262M.
Bookmyforex Jump
Despite aggregate traffic falling 16.9% QoQ, bookmyforex.com visits jumped from 149.2 million to 203.0 million, diverging sharply from the downtrend and lifting the Others segment against the seasonal backdrop.
Seasonal Drag Risk
If seasonal weakness in Jan-Mar deepens monetization by an extra 5% beyond modeled, particularly in Hotels and Packages, my Q4 estimate could drop to around USD 264M.
My Current Take on $MMYT
If you have been following my posts closely, you know I have been vocal about the Iran war and the broader oil shock. Urea, energy inputs, and other critical economic costs are in my view not properly priced into the wider market yet. MakeMyTrip has already come down sharply from its highs, but with no clear resolution in sight, it is hard to be genuinely bullish on a business this exposed to those compounding cost pressures.
The Iran situation has also likely landed some direct hits on the company towards the end of the quarter. I expect the impact to be minor in the Q4 print but more visible in the quarters that follow. That means my revenue estimate could fall further than modeled, and the current full year consensus looks high if critical input costs stay elevated.
On the short report, the next earnings release will be telling. If management fails to address the allegations convincingly, that overhang does not go away quietly.
The longer term picture is a different conversation. If the short report findings do not reveal anything structurally damaging and the company responds well, I still think this is one of the cleaner plays on Indian travel digitization over a multi year horizon. The tailwind is real. The platform is built. The question is timing.
And on timing, I am not a buyer here. The stock trades at close to 5x sales. If the Iran cost pressures start materializing more visibly in reported numbers, I think a compression to 3 to 4x sales is quite plausible. Pair that with soft revenues and you are looking at a meaningful further haircut to the price. That is not a reason to panic. That is actually when the stock starts to look genuinely interesting.
My playbook right now is simple. Watch, monitor, and wait. The next two earnings releases will be critical. I expect buying opportunities to emerge, potentially shortly after the coming prints, and I will be publishing updates as the situation develops.
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Disclaimer: This research is informational and not personalized investment advice. Outputs blend alternative data with a disciplined internal workflow; figures are directional and may change as new information arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.
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