Haypp Watch: Q4 Delivered; Real Growth Confirmed

US momentum accelerating; margins secondary to scale

This Haypp Watch series is where I follow the company closely; quarter by quarter; trying to extract signal before it becomes consensus. The ambition is simple; generate alpha through structured tracking; not narratives.

Haypp is also one of the most interesting stocks to experiment with alternative data; especially web traffic and customer behavior signals. The business is digital at its core; which makes leading indicators unusually visible.

With that framework in mind; let’s get straight into Q4.

Q4 Recap; Acceleration With Intent

Haypp published its Q4 earnings today and they look very promising. Revenue reached a new all time high and the company continues to generate strong, profitable operations in its core Nordic markets.

The real story, however, is what is happening beneath the surface. Haypp is deliberately leaning into the US and UK. Customer growth is accelerating, nicotine pouch volumes are expanding rapidly, and management is clearly prioritising scale over short term margin expansion.

Core Markets remain the financial backbone of the business. They are stable, profitable and funding the next phase of growth. This is important because it allows Haypp to invest aggressively without stressing the balance sheet.

There have been minor headwinds. Austria decided to move nicotine pouch sales into a state controlled retail structure, which will result in Haypp exiting that market. The revenue impact is very small and not structurally meaningful, but it is still a regulatory reminder.

Emerging Markets are growing at a very high pace, although still from a small base and currently loss making. These investments weigh on consolidated margins today, but they expand Haypp’s long term optionality.

Overall, Q4 shows a company that is accelerating on the topline, protecting its profitable base, and consciously investing in what could become its largest future cash flow engine.

Webcast Takeaways; Tone Matters

Going into the call, the setup was fairly clear. Revenue looked like a beat, weak net margins were already expected due to investment, and the real question was whether growth was accelerating beneath the surface.

The tone from management was confident.

Gavin emphasised that Growth Markets now represent more than 40% of nicotine pouch sales. US volumes were up strongly and customer inflow is accelerating. The focus in the near term is on “sharpening the axe” in the US; improving retention, refining execution, and then leaning even harder into growth. The US remains priority number one, while the UK is positioned as the largest opportunity in Europe.

Importantly, management framed increasing US competition and higher state taxes as structural positives. More brands entering the market validates the category, and higher retail prices can push consumers online, strengthening Haypp’s value proposition.

Peter Deli reinforced that core markets remain solid and profitable, while the US and UK investments are intentionally weighing on group margins. Emerging categories are growing rapidly, but still dilute profitability at this stage. Inventory is elevated but expected to normalise in Q1. Net debt remains low and the balance sheet is described as stable with room for expansion.

In the Q&A, analysts pressed on like for like growth and margin expansion. There was debate around measurement, particularly related to ZYN switching effects. Management acknowledged some distortions but maintained that underlying growth is stronger than surface level metrics suggest. On margins, the message was clear; 2026 will still be an investment heavy year, with growth taking precedence over short term expansion.

Regulatory topics were addressed calmly. The Stockholm dispute is not expected to have material operational impact. Austria is a minor issue. The bigger picture remains US and UK scaling.

My overall takeaway from the webcast is that this was not just a strong reported quarter; it was strong in forward signals. Management is leaning into the largest opportunities with conviction. If US execution works, the future cash flow profile of the company changes materially.

Given the numbers and the tone, the recent weakness in the stock looks disconnected from the underlying trajectory.

How Reality Turned Out

When I published the Q4 preview, the key conclusion was that the setup looked constructive despite the noise. All models pointed toward revenue comfortably above one billion SEK, with most estimates clustering between roughly 1,030 and 1,070 MSEK.

The reported number came in at 1,052 MSEK.

The average of my estimates was around 1,046 MSEK, which means the deviation from reality was well below one percent. That is not perfection, but it is close enough to confirm that the overall framework captured the quarter correctly.

More importantly, the direction was right.

Compared to Expectations

Ahead of the release, I also ran a public poll asking what people expected for Q4 revenue. The implied average from that poll was approximately 1,003 MSEK, with most responses concentrated in the 1,000–1,050 range.

Against that backdrop, a reported figure of 1,052 MSEK represents a meaningful upside surprise relative to informal market expectations.

At the same time, the stock had pulled back significantly from its recent highs going into the print. That combination; softer price action and relatively modest expectations; created a situation where the risk-reward skew looked more attractive than the prevailing sentiment suggested.

The data was pointing toward acceleration. The mood in the stock did not fully reflect that.

Why Total Revenue Tends to Be More Accurate

One pattern that has now repeated across multiple quarters is that total revenue forecasts tend to be more reliable than segment-level predictions.

There is a structural reason for this. Several Haypp websites do not map cleanly into one reporting segment. Some domains effectively represent both Core and Growth geographies, and traffic composition can shift over time. When working with external web data, it becomes difficult to allocate every visitor perfectly.

This creates small distortions at the segment level. Core can be slightly overstated while Growth is slightly understated, or vice versa. But at the total level, these distortions often offset each other. The noise cancels out.

Q4 followed that exact pattern. Segment-level deviations existed, but the combined estimate was very close to the reported outcome.

Core Markets

Core Markets reported 732.5 MSEK.

In the preview, I flagged the unusually strong traffic growth and the possibility that monetisation might dilute somewhat. In the end, the segment delivered solid and controlled growth. The simpler, more conservative modeling logic was appropriate here. Core behaved like a mature ecommerce base; steady monetisation with incremental volume expansion.

Growth Markets

Growth Markets came in at 278.7 MSEK.

This was close to the upper end of the projected range. The central uncertainty revolved around the ZYN normalization in the US. Web traffic did not fully reflect the scale of the recovery management had previously hinted at, which made the modeling more difficult.

Revenue nevertheless rebounded strongly. This suggests that monetisation recovered faster than traffic signals implied. It also highlights a limitation of traffic-based models during supply disruptions; revenue and visitors can temporarily decouple.

Still, the broader directional call; that Growth would reaccelerate; proved correct.

Emerging Markets; The Main Miss

Emerging Markets reported 41.0 MSEK, which was above my central estimate in the low-to-mid 30s.

This remains the segment where the framework struggles most. Emerging includes regulatory shifts, category discontinuations, and structural mix changes. These events break historical traffic-to-revenue relationships, and the website data does not capture the underlying business dynamics cleanly.

While this led to a segment-level miss, it did not materially alter the total revenue conclusion.

Overall Assessment

The purpose of the exercise is not to forecast every segment with perfect precision. It is to form a probabilistic view of direction before the official numbers are released.

In Q4, the models pointed toward a strong quarter. Revenue reached a new all-time high at 1,052 MSEK. Growth in the US and UK clearly accelerated. Core remained profitable and stable.

The average estimate of roughly 1,046 MSEK versus an actual 1,052 MSEK indicates that the overall structure of the framework continues to work at the total level.

There will always be quarters where noise dominates. Q4 was noisy. But the broader signal; acceleration rather than weakness; was correctly identified in advance.

Final Thoughts

Thank you for reading this quick Q4 update.

Overall, the quarter reinforces the broader thesis. Haypp continues to scale revenue to new highs, Core Markets remain profitable and stable, and the US and UK opportunity is becoming increasingly tangible in the numbers.

The future looks bright. At current levels, the valuation still feels reasonable relative to the long term growth potential. If execution in the US continues to improve and growth sustains into 2026, I would not be surprised to see the stock revisit and potentially surpass previous highs over the coming quarters.

In the meantime, I will continue refining the forecasting framework, stress testing assumptions, and documenting both successes and mistakes openly. The goal is constant improvement; not perfection.

At the current price level, the stock almost feels like it did a year ago when negative headlines were dominating the narrative. The difference now is that the underlying business momentum looks considerably stronger.

If execution in the US continues to improve and scale benefits start to materialize, the earnings profile over the next few years could look very different from today’s numbers. In that context, a potential US listing, once the business can comfortably absorb the additional costs, could act as a catalyst for broader investor awareness and a meaningful re-rating.

Haypp still has tremendous opportunity ahead. The addressable market in the US and UK alone leaves ample room for multi-year growth if management delivers on its strategy.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I own shares in Haypp Group, and my views are influenced by that ownership. Always do your own research and consider your individual risk tolerance before making investment decisions.