Haypp Watch: Q1 Revenue Prediction (Revised)

2026 Q1; New Segmentation, Same Strong Setup

It is time to revisit Haypp Group’s Q1 revenue prediction. I already published an estimate for this quarter, but shortly after that piece went live, Haypp Group communicated meaningful changes to how it reports its segments going forward. That made the previous version partially outdated almost immediately, which is why I am putting out a revised read rather than letting the old numbers stand. Better to refresh the framework now than to anchor on a structure that no longer matches what the company will actually report.

For those new here, Haypp Watch is a recurring series where I track Haypp Group’s web traffic; the number of users browsing Haypp Group’s websites. I then apply different methods to translate that traffic into revenue estimates ahead of reported results, with the aim of identifying potential alpha.

Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. The methods used in this analysis are experimental and rely on a limited historical dataset. Web traffic based modeling has clear limitations, particularly during periods affected by supply disruptions, regulatory changes, and segment restructurings. Forecasting results should therefore be interpreted as directional signals rather than precise predictions, and they may change as new information becomes available.

What changed in the segmentation

Before going into the actual prediction, it is worth explaining what changed on the reporting side, because it directly affects how the model has to be set up.

Haypp Group is dissolving the Emerging segment as a standalone reporting unit. The pieces that previously sat there are now being absorbed into the two remaining segments. In simplified terms, Swedish vape is moving into Core, while German vape and heated tobacco are moving into Growth. Q1 2026 is the first live quarter under this restructured reporting setup.

That sounds clean on paper, but in practice it has real implications for how I model the business. Several of the smaller sites that used to be lumped together as Emerging now have to be allocated more carefully. The UK vape wind down, which was already a complicating factor in the previous version of this blog, now lands inside the Growth segment rather than as part of a separate Emerging line. That means Growth will look slightly noisier than the underlying Nordic and US dynamics alone would suggest, even though the core engines of that segment are unchanged.

The good news is that the group total is unaffected by all of this. The reshuffle is a reporting change, not a business change. It just changes where things show up.

Backdrop

Q1 is shaping up to be another interesting quarter for Haypp Group, although for different reasons than in Q4. The broad picture is still constructive. Total tracked daily traffic across Haypp Group’s main sites remained strong in Q1 and came in modestly above the Q4 average. That may not sound dramatic on its own, but it matters in the context of what sits underneath the headline number: several of Haypp’s most important sites continued to perform well, and the US recovery story appears to be extending into the new quarter.

The most important development is once again the US. Nicokick remained at a high level throughout the quarter and averaged clearly above Q4, while Northerner also showed notable strength toward the end of the period, including some very strong weekly readings. That matters because the return of ZYN likely did not fully flow through in Q4. A continued normalization of product availability should still support customer inflows in Q1, especially as former users gradually return to the category rather than all reappearing immediately in one quarter. In other words, the US tailwind likely did not end with Q4. It may still be building.

Outside the US, the picture remains healthy across most of the core business. Sweden continues to look strong, with Snusbolaget still operating at a very high level and Snuslagret also showing solid improvement versus Q4. Haypp’s multi market site performed well too, adding to the impression that demand remains firm across the broader platform. Norway was somewhat more mixed, but still directionally positive overall, with both Snus and Snushjem holding up reasonably well.

The previously Emerging part of the business is where the picture becomes more complicated, and now that complexity is split between Core and Growth rather than sitting in its own bucket. The UK vape wind down, which now formally drags on Growth, is a real headwind that does not show up cleanly in traffic data. Some of the smaller sites still show decent activity, but they no longer roll up the way they used to. That makes part of the reading less clean than usual, even though the overall direction is still positive.

There is also one thing worth flagging that sits above the segmentation shuffle entirely: Media & Insights. This part of the business continues to look like an increasingly meaningful contributor, and Q1 is likely to benefit from incremental contract activity here. I will not anchor too strongly on a specific number, but it is worth saying upfront that M&I is one of the reasons the revised total ends up slightly higher than the previous version of this blog implied.

Taken together, Q1 looks like a quarter where the core growth story remains intact. Traffic strength has been broad enough to support another good quarter, and the US segment still appears to have more room to benefit from the return of ZYN. At the same time, the quarter is not perfectly clean from a modeling perspective. The new segmentation, the UK vape wind down, and some site level noise all add complexity. Still, the overall setup looks constructive, especially because the strongest signals are once again coming from the markets that matter most.

Below is an overview of how traffic developed across Haypp Group’s main sites during the quarter.

What the market thinks

Before presenting my own results, it is worth looking at outside expectations.

Earlier in the cycle, I ran a public poll on X asking what readers thought Haypp Group’s Q1 2026 revenue would come in at. Based on the response distribution, the implied expected value was roughly 1 062,5 MSEK, with most votes clustered in the 1 025 to 1 075 MSEK range.

That said, the sample was very small, so this should not be read too aggressively. Chatter around Haypp on X has also been quieter than normal lately, likely reflecting how the nicotine pouch hype has cooled after very elevated valuations across the sector. In many cases, that kind of quieter setup is not a bad sign for future price action.

There also appears to be at least one analyst estimate out there north of the poll number, although I have not verified whose estimate that is.

As in previous quarters, I still put more weight on the web traffic data than on loose market expectations. In the next section, I compare that market backdrop with the outputs from my own models, restated to fit the new segment structure.

Core market prediction (revised)

Starting with the new Core segment, the picture remains constructive, and arguably a little firmer than before now that Swedish vape sits inside it.

My estimate for Core comes in at 752,3 MSEK. The main driver here is unchanged from the previous version of this writeup: traffic across the key Nordic sites remained strong, with particularly solid performance from Snusbolaget and continued strength across the broader Nordic footprint. The reclassification of Swedish vape into Core does not change the underlying demand picture, but it does provide a marginally larger and more stable base from which to grow.

Overall, my base case is that Core revenue comes in clearly above the comparable Q4 level.

Growth segment prediction (revised)

The Growth segment is now a more complicated bucket than it used to be, because it absorbs both the strong US dynamics and the structurally weaker UK vape wind down, plus the German vape and heated tobacco pieces.