Haypp Group Q3 (Long Update)

Feeling Bullish. 2026 is Haypp’s Year.

Haypp released earnings two days ago, and I finally had time to go through everything properly. My first impression was that the results looked good; now, after digging into all the details, I’m even more bullish.

First, I’ll go over the most interesting parts of the report and what management said during the call. Then I’ll discuss what this means for the future, and finally, I’ll share what I’m doing with my own position.

Q3 Earnings Recap

The most surprising part of Q3 was the steep decline in snus volumes. Swedish snus revenue fell 18%, with roughly a third of that due to a tax change. It’s a sharp drop, but ultimately irrelevant. Snus is near zero free cash flow and adds little to Haypp’s long-term story. The company itself describes it as “no longer strategically important,” and that’s accurate. The future is nicotine pouches, not snus.

What really matters is that gross margin came in super strong at 18.8%; an all-time high and up from 14.3% last year. This was driven mainly by Media & Insights and continued scale benefits. To me, that confirms Haypp’s model has structural leverage. When the company decides to optimize for cash flow instead of expansion, it will throw off a lot of free cash. But that time isn’t now. Margins don’t matter yet; market share does. Haypp should still prioritize growth and price for category domination, not short-term profit.

Another key takeaway is that it seems Haypp has re-established its Media & Insights relationship with Philip Morris. While not explicitly confirmed, the commentary strongly suggests that cooperation has resumed. PM is likely to become one of Haypp’s largest clients for that data platform, and the effect could already be showing in Q3’s margin uplift. If fully active, it could easily add one or two percentage points to both revenue and profitability, given the high-margin nature of that business. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gross margin cross 20% in the next few quarters as that scales.

Management also clarified that ZYN’s return won’t affect gross margins as some feared. The mix impact should be neutral. What’s more, inventory grew as ZYN came back, a clear signal that U.S. growth is accelerating again.

On the regulatory side, the picture is mixed but overall positive. The U.S. legal situation is described as “optimal.” The FDA’s new pilot program should speed up product approvals, expanding the available assortment of nicotine pouch products; which is exactly the environment Haypp thrives in. More competition among brands means more variety for Haypp to distribute. In contrast, the EU regulatory path remains “choppy.” The Tobacco Taxation Directive and related proposals could make headlines but are likely to be moderated over time. Volatility here might create buying opportunities rather than structural risk.

Finally, the UK emerging segment shutdown was disappointing, though not material. Haypp is discontinuing nicotine vaping and heat-not-burn sales in the UK, roughly 30% of the already small emerging segment. It’s a setback, but the company emphasized that it frees up resources to focus on the rapidly growing UK pouch category; where they can use their full competitive toolkit.

All in all, the underlying message from Q3 is that the U.S. business is regaining momentum and margin expansion continues ahead of schedule. With ZYN back and the media business contributing again, U.S. revenue is likely to grow sharply. More on this next.

Q4 Outlook and U.S. Dominance

With ZYN back, Haypp is set to post a big Q4. Gavin mentioned during the call that roughly 40% of previous ZYN customers have already returned; a large share, but there’s still a significant base left to re-activate in the coming months. U.S. revenue currently makes up around 20% of Haypp’s total. Once the full ZYN recovery plays out, that number could easily pass 30% within a quarter or two, and then continue to grow well above the 18–25% CAGR target.

If that happens, Haypp could add 100–200 MSEK in revenue between Q4 and Q2 next year just from ZYN returning. That would almost guarantee crossing 1 000 MSEK in Q4 and put the 5 000 MSEK mark within reach much sooner than expected. It’s clear that 2026 is shaping up to be the breakout year; the point where both revenue and profitability begin compounding at scale. If we don’t get any major negative surprises, a re-rating seems inevitable once the market realizes what’s happening under the surface.

The U.S. setup is particularly attractive because it’s not only growing faster but also structurally more profitable. Sweden is a tough, margin-compressed market with heavy competition; the U.S. still has oxygen. Gross margins there are already close to twice those in Sweden, and I think net margins above 10% are achievable long-term. Management even hinted that they don’t want too much margin right now; growth takes priority. As long as volume growth stays this strong, they’ll keep reinvesting to dominate the market.

In Europe, the picture is more mixed. The decision to cut 30% of the Emerging segment by shutting down the UK vape business isn’t material financially, but it’s still notable. Haypp simply can’t compete in a non-compliant market when others play by different rules. Nicotine pouches, however, remain the strongest-growing category in the UK, where Haypp is the clear leader. If UK regulation ever catches up, Haypp can re-enter vapes instantly; they’re the only one fully compliant.

The bigger story, though, is the U.S. pouch war that’s about to intensify. New brands are coming, the FDA is accelerating reviews, and competition among manufacturers will heat up. For Haypp, that’s perfect. The more brands fight for shelf space, the more valuable Haypp’s distribution network becomes. The company stands to benefit from every new entrant.

In short: the U.S. is entering a new era; and it’s extremely bullish for Haypp.

Prediction Getting More Accurate

Looking back at my Q3 preview, my manual estimate of 953 MSEK ended up almost exactly right. The actual figure came in at 952 MSEK, a deviation of just 0.1 %. That’s obviously very close; but more importantly, it shows that the overall framework is starting to capture the company’s dynamics quite well.

The qualitative setup also held up. I expected a gradual rebound driven by the U.S. and a stabilizing core market, while emerging segments would contribute less; and that’s broadly what happened. The ZYN restock effect appeared late in the quarter, just as anticipated, and management confirmed that it should continue into Q4.

On the segment side, the relative performance was directionally correct. Core and Growth markets aligned with the model’s expectations, while Emerging came in weaker due to the UK vape withdrawal. I mentioned earlier that overlap between domains could distort those numbers slightly, which proved to be the case.

All in all, this was one of the most accurate quarters yet for the forecasting process. Of course, that doesn’t mean it will always be this close; some luck is involved, and the data can shift quickly. But it’s encouraging to see that the approach is consistently producing results within a small margin of error.

Heading into Q4, I’ll keep refining the model rather than celebrating the precision. The goal is to make it robust enough that accuracy like this becomes the norm, not the exception.

What I’m Doing and Where I See the Stock Going

This is not investment advice. Anything is possible.

As you know, I’m very bullish on Haypp and hold a large position. When the stock traded in the 50–70 SEK range last year, I loaded up heavily, and since then I’ve added occasionally when the setup looked right.