Haypp Group Q3 Earnings Preview

Weak summer months aside, all signals point to record volumes

In my last post about Haypp, published about a month ago, I wrote that revenue would likely come in around 950 million SEK, as web traffic had risen significantly since Q2. Historically, Haypp’s traffic data has shown strong predictive power when it comes to quarterly results.

In this post, I’ll go over a few thoughts ahead of the upcoming earnings release; what I’m currently seeing in the data, how the market seems to be positioning, and what might surprise investors this quarter.

For Those Who Missed the Last Post

In my previous Haypp Watch from early October, I forecasted Q3 revenue to land around 953 MSEK, based on a sharp rebound in web traffic; particularly from Nicokick and the core Nordic markets.
Traffic data suggested the strongest quarterly growth in my dataset, driven by a renewed ZYN supply and stabilization across Sweden and Norway.

I also outlined three forecast models:

• Simple linear: 1,083 MSEK (likely too high due to U.S. mix)

• Mechanical regressions: 958 MSEK and 991 MSEK

• Adjusted manual: 953 MSEK (final baseline estimate)

The post highlighted that:

• Nicokick traffic was surging to all-time highs,

• Northerner remained muted but stable,

• Vapeglobe nearly doubled traffic (from a low base),

• And ZYN restocking would act as a gradual tailwind rather than a one-off event.

Finally, I argued that sentiment already reflected most positives; meaning the stock reaction would likely be neutral unless revenue materially beats expectations or we see a major surprise like an uplisting announcement.

What’s New Since My Last Update

Since my last update, there have been some clear shifts in Haypp’s web traffic. Snusbolaget is on an insane rally; by far the strongest mover across all domains. The core markets overall look very promising, with continued momentum and steady growth through the early part of Q4.

Interestingly, it almost looks like the ZYN supply returning boosted the Nordic markets more than the U.S.; even though that obviously makes little sense, since ZYN availability affects U.S. sales. Still, the timing overlaps in a way that makes the data look stronger than expected for Sweden and Norway.

Meanwhile, Northerner continues to grind higher, and Nicokick is also moving up, though with much more volatility. That volatility likely stems from differences in ad spend strategies or ongoing marketing experiments, which makes it worth digging into further.

Overall, Q4 is off to a strong start, with Snusbolaget clearly leading and the rest of the platform showing solid early momentum.

What to Watch This Wednesday

Haypp reports Q3 earnings next Wednesday, the 5th, and several key topics will be worth paying attention to. In my previous post, I already outlined some of the areas I’m watching, but here’s a more complete list of what would be particularly valuable to see discussed or clarified.

1. Uplisting Announcement
The biggest potential catalyst would be confirmation; or at least a timeline; for uplist plans from Nasdaq First North to the main market. Haypp already meets many of the requirements, and such a move would likely open the door for institutional funds and U.S. retail investors to buy the stock. It’s one of the few clear triggers that could materially re-rate valuation multiples.