For those new here, this is where I document my investing journey, share ideas, and post relevant updates. Since the last memo, nothing extreme has happened on the portfolio side, but I’ve been busy with several projects that I’ll outline below for those interested. We also have Haypp’s Q3 report coming up, so I’ll share a few quick thoughts on that as well.
Portfolio recap
Since the last memo, not much has changed on the portfolio side. The biotech names have been swinging wildly; up or down 10% every other day; but that’s nothing new.
My nicotine pouch holdings, Haypp Group and Turning Point Brands, have both traded fairly flat. Haypp will report Q3 earnings on November 5th, and I’ll post one more update before then. Activity around the stock on X has been unusually quiet, and the price has drifted slightly downward. Historically, these moments have turned out to be good entry points in my experience.
Looking ahead, I expect Haypp to pick up speed next year. Growth in this company tends to come in cycles, and the setup for 2026 looks increasingly favorable.
Turning Point Brands
I’ve written quite a bit about Turning Point Brands, but haven’t yet finished the full deep dive; most of my time has gone into startup work over the past few weeks. That said, it’s on the way.
Right now looks like an interesting moment to revisit the stock. It has taken a breather, and recent data suggests that the nicotine pouch segment is growing even faster than I expected a year ago.
I have a strong conviction that TPB could become one of the biggest nicotine pouch winners; and likely evolve into a near pure-play in the not-so-distant future as pouches continue to take market share.
Options on TPB also look interesting at the moment. They aren’t particularly expensive, but their short expiries make them a bit of a timing gamble. For that reason, I mainly hold the stock itself, while keeping a smaller position in options.
Looking back
Last time I mentioned that NBIS looked overstretched, which led me to sell my position. That call turned out to be fairly well-timed, as the stock has since pulled back sharply. It remains on my radar, but at the moment I’m not looking to take a position in either direction.
What I’m working on
Lately I’ve been eyeing startups. With public indices not looking particularly cheap, early-stage companies offer a useful layer of diversification against stretched valuations.
I mainly operate out of Finland, so Nordic startups are my focus. Over the past week I’ve met with several promising founders, and I’ll likely start including some of these startup investments in future posts. For those unfamiliar with the region, the Nordics offer some of the best startup opportunities outside the U.S. Investment in Finnish startups as a share of GDP is currently at an all-time high.
If you’re interested in the Nordic startup scene, feel free to reach out. I’ll also be attending Slush next month in Helsinki; if you’re there, let’s meet up. The ecosystem in Finland and Sweden has recently produced several notable billion-dollar companies like Oura and Klarna, and I believe there’s more to come. The Nordics have strong early-stage networks but often lack capital in later rounds (B, C, and beyond), which creates attractive openings for U.S. investors to step in with limited competition.
Looking forward
My thesis on TechBio remains intact. I still believe the sector offers some of the best upside in the current market. The extreme volatility also creates interesting opportunities to cycle around option expiries.
Pairing that with my exposure to nicotine pouches provides solid diversification, as the two tend to move in opposite directions.
Over the next two weeks, I’ll be in New York (Manhattan); if anyone wants to talk investments, feel free to DM me.
That’s all for today.
Disclaimer
Nothing in this memo constitutes financial advice. All opinions are my own and shared for informational purposes only. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.