Web traffic surged 15.5% QoQ to about 23.7 million visits, driven by strength in women’s health domains; that demand signal contrasts with a potential revenue dip from FDA restrictions on compounded weight loss drugs. The near-term print may disappoint given the recent run in the stock, but the setup here is materially different from where Hims was a few years ago.

The legal overhangs that weighed on the stock for years are largely resolved. The narrative has shifted cleanly to peptides, a category with what looks like durable demand ahead. That is a fundamentally better story to own, and the market is starting to price it that way without yet going completely off the rails on valuation. After years of trading at multiples that assumed perfection, Hims is now sitting at a valuation that looks grounded; not cheap in an absolute sense, but reasonable given the growth runway if the peptide category develops the way early signals suggest it will.

This is my first coverage post on HIMS, so errors are more likely than on names I have tracked for several quarters. The alt-data read will sharpen as I calibrate against reported results. That said, the stock has been on my radar for a long time and I have a view on the setup, which you can read in the editorial note above.

Outlook Snapshot

Q1 FY2026 covers Jan–Mar 2026. Last quarter, Q4 FY2025 (Oct–Dec 2025), revenue came in at USD 617.8M. Earnings are expected around 2026-05-11, per the EODHD calendar; Hims Hers Health Inc has not yet officially confirmed the day.

App Downloads Signal

App installs decelerated this quarter. iOS downloads, which make up 74% of the mix and often convert to higher-value subscribers, peaked in January before dropping in February and stabilizing in March; Android showed stability with a slight increase from January to February before holding steady. This softening in acquisition could pressure subscriber growth if conversion rates don’t hold up. The trend contrasts with web traffic strength, adding uncertainty to the revenue picture.

Web Traffic Signal

Aggregate web traffic rose 15.5% QoQ and 65.4% YoY, reaching about 23.7 million visits. Demand accelerated across the platform. The surge came largely from Hers-related domains. Forhers.com jumped sharply from 8.8 million to 11.6 million visits.

Apostrophe.com rebounded modestly to 20,675 visits after prior declines. Hims domains stayed mostly stable. Consistent traction held in men’s health.

Traffic drives user funnels into consultations and subscriptions. The uptick helps but may not fully offset disruptions elsewhere.

Intra-quarter patterns decelerated toward March. Momentum faded. Demand is positive overall, especially in women’s offerings.

Hers Brand Read

Signal sources: forhers.com, hers.com

Hers domains drove the quarter’s traffic growth. Forhers.com jumped sharply QoQ, while apostrophe.com rebounded slightly after declines. Traction strengthened in women’s health and skincare.

Engagement is the clearest signal in the Hers brand this quarter.

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Hims Brand

Signal sources: hims.com, forhims.com, forhims.co.uk

Traffic for Hims domains held largely stable QoQ. Hims.com ticked up slightly, but forhims.com dipped modestly; the UK site stayed steady. Demand stayed consistent in men’s health without big shifts.

Engagement in the Hims brand is flat rather than accelerating this quarter.

Revenue Estimate

My Q1 FY2026 revenue estimate is USD 614.9M. The slight dip starts from last quarter’s USD 617.8M. The dip comes from decelerating app installs and intra-quarter traffic softening, despite the overall web uptick. Hers brand contributes positively with its traffic surge.

That adds growth in women’s health. Hims brand is stable, holding its ground without acceleration. Positive drivers include underlying revenue momentum and daily app trends. Monthly app deceleration weighs in.

Sensitivities sit around the FDA restrictions from February 2026, which halted compounded semaglutide sales—a segment worth $180-200M quarterly—but my estimate sticks to what the alt-data signals, treating the event as background risk rather than a direct adjustment. My estimate lands 0.4% below consensus, a minor divergence at medium confidence.

What the Market Thinks

Consensus from EODHD has revenue at USD 617.2M for Q1 FY2026, based on 12 analysts, with a band from USD 608.4M to USD 632.5M. EPS sits at 0.0383. The stock fell 37.9% over the quarter, from 33.41 to 20.76.

Market chatter focuses on regulatory risks, with positive sentiment around a scheduled FDA review of peptide compounding eligibility. Discussions highlight subscriber growth and the lab testing launch. Regulatory concerns caused volatility. The narrative emphasizes evolving into a scalable consumer health platform.

Risk Factors

My biggest worry is prolonged FDA restrictions from February 2026 halting compounded semaglutide, eroding the $180-200M quarterly from weight loss; if no offsets emerge, revenue could drop by up to 32%, pushing below USD 420M. App install deceleration adds pressure on subscriber adds, particularly on iOS where the monthly trend is softest. Signals are noisy here, so confidence is medium; actuals could diverge if intra-quarter trends worsen.

Traffic-Revenue Decoupling

Web traffic surged 15.5% QoQ to 23.7M visits, driven by Hers domains, but this demand strength contrasts with a potential revenue dip from FDA restrictions halting $180-200M in quarterly weight loss sales.

Weight Loss Segment Headwind

If the FDA crackdown on compounded semaglutide fully erodes the $180-200M quarterly from weight loss without offset from other segments, my revenue estimate could fall by up to 32%, landing below USD 420M.

Editorial Note

I have followed Hims for a while and traded it several times over the years, both short and long, with good results. The stock had significant legal overhangs and was trading at extended valuations a few years back; that setup is largely behind us now. The focus has shifted to peptides, a category I expect to see sustained demand in going forward.

For this quarter specifically, the setup looks different from prior periods. Revenue will likely print in a fairly expected range, and given the recent stock surge, a slightly soft print could trigger a modest dip. That is the near-term read.

Longer term I am more constructive. The peptide narrative will drive retail interest hard, and the valuation is looking grounded relative to where this stock has traded historically. Hims tends to swing to extremes; I would not be surprised to see it hit new all-time highs as retail momentum builds again. I will be tracking it closely.

Disclaimer: This research is informational and not personalized investment advice. Outputs blend alternative data with a disciplined internal workflow; figures are directional and may change as new information arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

If you want more of these before they hit earnings, subscribe at emilhartela.com.

I followed and traded HIMS for roughly a year and a half. It was a chaos trade. The stock has a beta of 2.47 and it earned every bit of that, moving 15-20% on FDA headlines with no warning. At its worst the regulatory noise around compounded semaglutide made the stock nearly untradeable on fundamentals; at its best the GLP-1 hype sent it vertical. I stepped away. Now I’m back, and I want to explain both why this stock belongs in my coverage universe and why right now is the right time to initiate.

Why HIMS is a natural fit for alt-data coverage

The business model is almost entirely digital. A customer discovers Hims or Hers, visits the website or app, consults with a licensed provider, and enrolls in a subscription. That funnel generates a clean, trackable signal in web traffic and app install data weeks before the company reports anything.

This is the core of what I do. When a DTC health platform is growing at 49% year-over-year and I can observe whether that growth rate is accelerating or decelerating through alternative data, I have a meaningful edge over the market, which is sitting on the sidelines waiting for the quarterly print. HIMS is one of the cleanest setups for this kind of work that I cover.

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What the business actually is

Hims & Hers runs a telehealth platform that connects consumers to licensed doctors and nurses for prescriptions across stigmatized wellness categories: erectile dysfunction, hair loss, skincare, and now weight management. Everything is delivered directly to your door. No office visit, no pharmacy line, no awkward conversation. That privacy angle is not a marketing gimmick; it is the structural reason the brand has pricing power in categories where competitors hesitate to go.

The model is subscription-based. Customers consult, get prescribed, and receive recurring shipments. That creates predictable revenue and high retention if the product works. Gross margins sit at 75%, which reflects the efficiency of a DTC operation without physical retail overhead. Operating margins are thin at 2%, but that is a deliberate choice; the company is spending aggressively to grow the subscriber base.

TTM revenue is $2.2 billion, up 49% in the most recent quarter. Founder-CEO Andrew Dudum has been at the helm since 2017, and insiders hold 6.3% of the company. The market cap is $3.7 billion.

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Where the money comes from

Revenue breaks into four segments. Weight management is now the largest at 39% of total revenue, fueled by compounded GLP-1 drugs including semaglutide analogs. Dermatology and skincare is 24%, sexual health is 20%, and wellness and hair care is 17%. Geographically, 95% of revenue comes from the US.

That segment mix matters for how I think about the stock. The top segment at 39% is the highest-growth part of the business but also where the regulatory risk concentrates. The other three segments are stable; they provide ballast but they are not driving the growth narrative. This is fundamentally a weight management growth story with a diversified base underneath it.

The competitive position

Hims competes against Ro in sexual health and weight loss, Teladoc in broader telehealth, and GoodRx at the discount end. The differentiation is brand trust in taboo categories. A consumer who already trusts Hims with their ED prescription is far more likely to start a GLP-1 subscription through Hims than through a platform they have never used. That trust is genuinely difficult to replicate and it extends naturally into each new vertical Hims enters.

The brand moat is the most durable part of the story. Network effects are moderate; the Labs personalization product, which tracks biomarkers over time to refine treatment plans, adds stickiness but it is not a flywheel in the way that social platforms have one. Scale advantages from spreading fixed costs over a large subscriber base are real. The weakness is FDA exposure on compounded drugs, which is concentrated in the highest-revenue segment.

On the supplier side, pharmaceutical ingredient providers have meaningful leverage, and FDA rules amplify that in weight management specifically. Buyer power is low by structure; millions of individual consumers making small recurring transactions have no negotiating position. New entrants face moderate barriers in stigmatized categories where brand rapport matters, and lower barriers elsewhere.

Management

Dudum has built this from a sexual health niche into a multi-category telehealth platform in seven years. The strategic bets have been sharp: the GLP-1 pivot was early and it paid off. CFO Yemi Okupe brings execution depth. The Zava acquisition adds European distribution; the Trybe Labs acquisition deepens the data personalization layer. Stock-based comp runs at 8% of revenue, which signals a growth-over-profits mentality and is worth watching as the business matures. Insider ownership at 6.3% is acceptable alignment but not exceptional.

The strategy and the optionality

The near-term priority is scaling the weight management subscriber base. Affordable compounded semaglutide, the Hers women’s line, and AI-driven Labs personalization are the three levers. The international opportunity via Zava is early but real. Longer-term, mental health and chronic care verticals are logical extensions of the platform. The optionality here is genuine; a company with this brand, this margin structure, and this distribution reach has multiple paths to compound.

R&D spend is 5.3% of revenue, modest but targeted. The focus is AI personalization and the Labs data flywheel, which tracks biomarkers over time to refine treatment protocols. That positions Hims to differentiate from basic telehealth as the category commoditizes.

Why I’m initiating now

Two things have shifted. First, the regulatory situation around compounded GLP-1s looks materially more settled than it did for most of the past 18 months. The compounded semaglutide question was the central bear thesis; if that risk is largely resolved, the valuation math changes. The 39% weight management segment can be underwritten more confidently.

Second, peptide and GLP-1 consumer demand is genuinely accelerating. This is not hype normalizing; it is structural. The consumer addressable market for weight management subscriptions is far larger than what Hims has captured, and the platform is well-positioned to take share. Accessible pricing, discreet delivery, and a trusted brand are the right combination for this category at this moment.

The stock was untradeable on FDA headlines. Now the fundamental picture is cleaner, the alt-data signal is trackable, and the demand backdrop is strong. That is the setup I look for.

What comes next

I will be running web traffic and app install data on HIMS going into the next earnings print. That data will form the core of the earnings preview, which goes to paid subscribers. Free readers get the coverage initiation and the setup framing. Paid readers get the data read, the model, and my view on positioning.

If you are not already subscribed, the link is below.

I have recently been expanding my coverage to more stocks that can be modeled using web traffic and app download data. StubHub is an interesting company to test the pipeline against and works as a useful experiment for understanding where the model has limits.

I am not yet sure whether StubHub will become an official coverage stock. It does not quite meet my ideal criteria. Web traffic and app downloads do carry some predictive power here, but the nature of the business creates a structural problem. Hot events can massively amplify ticket resale volumes in ways that web traffic alone simply cannot anticipate. The result is that the signal is noisier than I would like, and the average error in backtesting came out larger than my threshold.

For now StubHub sits in experimental territory. I will continue gathering data and may revisit it more seriously if I can add data sources that better capture ticket sales intensity and event sentiment.

One more thing worth flagging. The revenue estimate in this post lands well below street consensus, and that gap is likely a direct consequence of the weak explanatory power of traffic on this name. Misses in either direction of 10% or more are plausible. This report is best read as indicative of a potentially softer quarter than the street expects, not as a precise prediction.

StubHub’s Traffic Split: North America Tanks While International Spikes

StubHub’s aggregate web traffic fell 16.5% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 FY2026; the split is what surprises me—North America dropped sharply while international sites spiked. Stubhub.com visits declined about 18% from 67.2 million to 55.2 million – that marks seasonal weakness after the holiday peak. Viagogo.com jumped over 40% to 1.6 million visits; that divergence means uneven momentum. This is my first coverage post on the name, so errors are more likely than on tickers I’ve tracked for several quarters; my alt-data read should sharpen with each cycle as I calibrate against reported results.

App Install Trends

App installs held stable for StubHub in Q1 FY2026. The StubHub app added about 20,000 downloads each month, matching recent quarters. Viagogo’s app spiked in March to 200,000 downloads, doubling from February. The March surge means growing international engagement.

These figures cover Android only, via Google Play data; App Store installs are not available. Not every install converts to revenue—retention and transactions matter more. Stable installs sustain user acquisition. The international uptick provides modest offset to North American weakness.

Web Traffic Breakdown

Aggregate web traffic dropped 16.5% quarter-over-quarter to 58.0 million visits in Q1 FY2026. The year-over-year decline hit 62.9%. North America drove most of the pullback; stubhub.com visits fell about 18% from 67.2 million to 55.2 million. Q1 is historically soft for live events.

International sites bucked the trend. Viagogo.com spiked over 40% to 1.6 million visits; stubhub.co.uk dipped modestly to 0.7 million. Stubhub.ca rose to 0.5 million visits. The divergence stands out—domestic weakness amid international pockets of growth.

North America Read

Signal sources: stubhub.com, stubhub.ca

North America is the revenue heavyweight. Traffic here declined sharply in Q1 FY2026, with stubhub.com down about 18% quarter-over-quarter. The drop is seasonal. January through March is consistently soft for live events after Q4’s holiday surge.

Stubhub.ca added a small lift, up to 0.5 million visits. Event mix adds lumpiness; fewer major concerts or sports post-holidays weigh on gross merchandise sales.

International Read

Signal sources: viagogo.com, stubhub.co.uk

International traffic grew modestly quarter-over-quarter, led by viagogo.com’s 40% spike to 1.6 million visits. Stubhub.co.uk held at 0.7 million, a slight dip. This outpaces North America’s decline; the segment has a faster trajectory.

Revenue here adds upside, partially offsetting North American weakness through higher gross merchandise sales.

My Revenue Estimate

The Q1 FY2026 revenue estimate is USD 367.5M. That lands about 18.2% below last quarter’s USD 449.2M. Seasonal weakness historically drags Q1 results. North America contributes the bulk but pulls back on lower traffic and event volume.

International adds some lift from traffic gains, tempering the decline. Event mix sensitivities matter—a stronger concert lineup could add 5-10 points to gross merchandise sales. Where traffic is noisy, I lean on backtested patterns. The estimate includes these dynamics without assuming major distortions like last year’s Eras Tour.

What the Market Thinks

Consensus from 11 analysts puts Q1 FY2026 revenue at USD 425.2M, with EPS at 0.004. The street band runs from USD 387.6M to USD 460.2M. Stock price sank 56.3% over the quarter, from 14.29 to 6.24.

Independent views emphasize AI-driven direct issuance for efficiency and international expansion outpacing North America. Sentiment is cautious, with sparse discussion on stock declines. My EODHD calendar does not yet show a confirmed report date for this quarter.

Risks to the Estimate

Event mix swings are uncertain—a weaker concert slate could subtract 5-10 points from gross merchandise sales, pushing revenue below my USD 367.5M estimate.

The divergence from consensus comes from these factors, with my read 13.6% below the USD 425.2M average. International momentum helps, but it starts from a smaller base.

What Stood Out

Despite aggregate traffic plunging 62.9% YoY, international sites like viagogo.com posted over 40% QoQ gains, diverging sharply from North America’s 18% decline on stubhub.com amid seasonal weakness.

Risk to the Read

If event mix swings toward a weaker concert slate, gross merchandise sales could drop an additional 5-10%, pushing total revenue below my $367.5 million estimate.

Disclaimer: This research is informational and not personalized investment advice. Outputs blend alternative data with a disciplined internal workflow; figures are directional and may change as new information arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

If you want more of these before they hit earnings, subscribe at emilhartela.com.

This is my first coverage post on MakeMyTrip, so errors are more likely than on names I’ve tracked for quarters; my alt-data read should sharpen as I calibrate against reported results.

The stock dropped 54.5% from January to March, with a critical report stirring controversy. Traffic fell 16.9% QoQ, but the mild 2.8% YoY decline means stability underneath. That mismatch is what caught my eye.

Outlook Snapshot

Q4 FY2026 covers Jan–Mar 2026, the exact window from 2026-01-01 through 2026-03-31.

Last quarter, Q3 FY2026 (Oct–Dec 2025), revenue came in at USD 295.7M.

Earnings are expected around 2026-05-20 per the EODHD calendar; MakeMyTrip has not yet officially announced the day.

How I Get to a Number

I use public web traffic and Android install deltas to read the quarter before MakeMyTrip prints. Every site and app is mapped to an IFRS revenue line — air, hotels, bus, others — then rolled up with seasonal and year-over-year patterns, plus an India events / hotels semantic layer for Hotels and Packages. Walk-forward backtests on prior quarters keep the model honest; the latest group-level MAPE is around 13%, with Hotels the noisiest segment. This is pre-print research, not a trade idea.

App installs held stable, with the main MakeMyTrip app around 900,000 monthly downloads in Jan–Mar 2026.

Goibibo saw 400,000–500,000 per month; RedBus jumped to 2 million in March after 1 million in February.

These deltas mean consistent user acquisition. Not every install converts to revenue, but steady onboarding supports engagement in air, hotels, and bus segments.

The signal matches traffic’s year-over-year stability; that offsets some seasonal web weakness.

Web Traffic Signal

Aggregate traffic fell 16.9% QoQ and 2.8% YoY in Q4 FY2026.

The QoQ decline is seasonal softness. Jan–Mar is consistently weak for Indian travel post-holidays.

Bookmyforex.com jumped from 149.2 million to 203.0 million visits, a sharp anomaly against the broader downtrend.

Revenue steps down from Q3’s USD 295.7M. YoY patterns temper the drop.

Hotels and Packages Read

Signal sources: makemytrip.com, goibibo.com (web) and com.makemytrip, com.goibibo (apps).

This is the revenue heavyweight, contributing about half the group.

Traffic pressure came from seasonality, down 4.9%, but year-over-year patterns add 6.8% and hotels semantic demand lifts another 1.7%, netting to +3.3%.

The segment lands at USD 132.6M, down QoQ yet stable against last year.

Remaining Segments

Air Ticketing

Signal sources: makemytrip.com, goibibo.com (web) and com.makemytrip, com.goibibo (apps).

Air ticketing traffic declined QoQ with seasonal weakness, but year-over-year patterns add a 9.9% lift.

Stable app downloads mean consistent user engagement.

Revenue comes in at USD 63.1M, down QoQ but bolstered by the YoY adjustment.

Bus Ticketing

Signal sources: redbus.in (web) and in.redbus.android (app).

Bus ticketing traffic dropped QoQ from seasonality, down 2.8%, offset by a 10.6% year-over-year lift, netting to +7.4%.

RedBus app installs spiked in March; that brings volatility but late-quarter strength.

The segment adds USD 36.9M.

Others

Signal sources: makemytrip.com, bookmyforex.com, quest2travel.com, goibibo.com, redbus.in (web).

Others held resilient with bookmyforex.com’s traffic spike, diverging positively.

Year-over-year patterns add a 12.0%.

Revenue sits at USD 37.6M, punching above weight this quarter.

Revenue Estimate

My point estimate for Q4 FY2026 is USD 270.3M. Starting from Q3’s USD 295.7M, the QoQ step-down comes from seasonal headwinds across segments. Hotels and Packages contributes USD 132.6M, about 49% of the total, with a net +3.3% from modifiers including seasonality subtracting 4.9%, YoY patterns adding 6.8%, and hotels semantic demand adding 1.7%. Air Ticketing adds USD 63.1M, or 23%, leaning on a 9.9% YoY lift; Bus Ticketing brings USD 36.9M (14%) with a net +7.4% after seasonality’s 2.8% drag and 10.6% YoY offset; Others rounds out at USD 37.6M (14%) via 12.0% YoY patterns.

Traffic drives most of my read, with event and semantic layers fine-tuning Hotels; sensitivities sit in monetization holding against the seasonal dip. The estimate diverges below the full-year street consensus of USD 1.12B from those headwinds.

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Methodology Note

These per-segment figures are IFRS operating-segment revenue from MakeMyTrip’s filings; they sum to the group IFRS revenue line.

MakeMyTrip also reports an Adjusted Margin per segment, a non-IFRS metric that subtracts service costs, which differs from revenue.

Both metrics have value, but I use IFRS revenue here to tie directly to consolidated totals.

What the Market Thinks

The EODHD full-year revenue consensus sits at USD 1.12B from 9 analysts, with EPS at 1.6224 from the same group.

The stock fell 54.5% over Jan–Mar 2026, amid controversy from a critical report accusing the company of defying regulators, scamming customers, and padding profits.

Chatter picked up on X, with sentiment split — some defending the financials, others echoing the short-seller allegations.

Notable points: - MakeMyTrip reported its Q3 FY2026 results on January 21, 2026, noting impacts from GST rate reductions on hotel bookings. - The company announced on February 15, 2026, a repurchase right notification for its 0% convertible notes due 2028.

Focus heading into earnings is on hotels growth and addressing the short-seller allegations.

Risk Factors

Deeper seasonal weakness could hit monetization harder than modeled.

If it slips an extra 5% in Hotels and Packages, the estimate drops to around USD 264M.

The short-seller report might erode user trust, leading to lower bookings; if that reduces volumes by 3%, revenue could fall to USD 262M.

Bookmyforex Jump

Despite aggregate traffic falling 16.9% QoQ, bookmyforex.com visits jumped from 149.2 million to 203.0 million, diverging sharply from the downtrend and lifting the Others segment against the seasonal backdrop.

Seasonal Drag Risk

If seasonal weakness in Jan-Mar deepens monetization by an extra 5% beyond modeled, particularly in Hotels and Packages, my Q4 estimate could drop to around USD 264M.

My Current Take on $MMYT

If you have been following my posts closely, you know I have been vocal about the Iran war and the broader oil shock. Urea, energy inputs, and other critical economic costs are in my view not properly priced into the wider market yet. MakeMyTrip has already come down sharply from its highs, but with no clear resolution in sight, it is hard to be genuinely bullish on a business this exposed to those compounding cost pressures.

The Iran situation has also likely landed some direct hits on the company towards the end of the quarter. I expect the impact to be minor in the Q4 print but more visible in the quarters that follow. That means my revenue estimate could fall further than modeled, and the current full year consensus looks high if critical input costs stay elevated.

On the short report, the next earnings release will be telling. If management fails to address the allegations convincingly, that overhang does not go away quietly.

The longer term picture is a different conversation. If the short report findings do not reveal anything structurally damaging and the company responds well, I still think this is one of the cleaner plays on Indian travel digitization over a multi year horizon. The tailwind is real. The platform is built. The question is timing.

And on timing, I am not a buyer here. The stock trades at close to 5x sales. If the Iran cost pressures start materializing more visibly in reported numbers, I think a compression to 3 to 4x sales is quite plausible. Pair that with soft revenues and you are looking at a meaningful further haircut to the price. That is not a reason to panic. That is actually when the stock starts to look genuinely interesting.

My playbook right now is simple. Watch, monitor, and wait. The next two earnings releases will be critical. I expect buying opportunities to emerge, potentially shortly after the coming prints, and I will be publishing updates as the situation develops.

If you want to follow the coverage as this plays out, subscribe below.

Disclaimer: This research is informational and not personalized investment advice. Outputs blend alternative data with a disciplined internal workflow; figures are directional and may change as new information arrives. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.

If you want more of these before they hit earnings, subscribe at emilhartela.com.

Recently, I announced that I will be expanding my research coverage materially. My niche is tracking companies whose main customer surfaces are web traffic and app usage. That matters because these digital footprints can often be turned into revenue prediction models, creating the potential to uncover alpha before it is visible in reported numbers.

The coverage expansion is still in its early days. At the moment, I cover Haypp, and MakeMyTrip will become the second ticker added to the research desk. In the near future, I will also publish my first revenue prediction on MMYT.

MMYT was chosen because it is an especially interesting candidate for alternative data analysis. The company has the data, but the data is not easy to model. That makes it more challenging, but also more interesting. Beyond that, the stock has a compelling narrative and will likely be a fresh idea for many of my current readers.

This post marks the start of my coverage on the company. The purpose is to provide a deep dive into what MakeMyTrip actually does and help you determine whether the name is worth following more closely. If you enjoy this post, consider subscribing to the coverage section so you do not miss the upcoming revenue prediction on MMYT.

Finally, this is not financial advice. The purpose of this coverage is to surface interesting opportunities and, over time, identify divergences through alternative data for readers who want to follow the name more closely.

So, let’s get into it.

MakeMyTrip is the leading online travel platform in India. For most users, it is simply the place where travel gets booked: flights, hotels, buses, holiday packages, and increasingly a broader set of travel-related services. But as an investment case, the company is more interesting than that. It sits at the intersection of several powerful trends in India: rising incomes, increasing domestic mobility, growing digital adoption, and the gradual formalization of travel bookings through mobile platforms.

The more important point is that MakeMyTrip is no longer just a growth story. After years of investing through a highly competitive market and then surviving the collapse in travel during COVID, the company has emerged as a meaningfully profitable business. That changes the framing. Investors are no longer looking only at bookings growth or market share. They are now asking whether this can become a durable compounder in one of the most attractive consumer internet markets in the world.

Founded in 2000 and listed since 2010, MakeMyTrip operates through a portfolio of strong brands including MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus. The business is headquartered in Gurugram and employs more than 5,000 people. On a trailing twelve-month basis, revenue is around $1.0 billion, with gross margins close to 58% and operating margins nearing 14%. For a company that spent years prioritizing scale and market positioning, that level of profitability is notable.

What makes the story compelling is that the company has already been stress-tested. Travel is cyclical by nature. Demand is vulnerable to economic slowdowns, fuel price spikes, public health shocks, and discounting wars. MakeMyTrip has already gone through the most severe travel downturn in modern history and came out stronger. That resilience matters because India’s travel market still looks early in its development.

A Simple Business Model With Powerful Scale Economics

At its core, MakeMyTrip is a marketplace and distribution business. It connects travelers with airlines, hotel operators, bus companies, and other travel service providers, then monetizes that connection through commissions, service fees, advertising, and ancillary products.

The model is straightforward, but its attractiveness comes from scale. Customers book through the company’s apps, websites, call centers, and agent channels. The offering spans flights, hotels, packages, bus and rail tickets, car rentals, experiences, insurance, foreign exchange, and visa-related services. For the user, the appeal is convenience. For MakeMyTrip, the appeal is volume.

This is a classic high-frequency, low-ticket distribution business. Millions of small transactions pass through the platform. As that volume grows, fixed investments in technology, customer acquisition infrastructure, and supplier integration become more productive. In other words, once scale is established, incremental bookings can become very profitable.

That does not mean the business is immune to pressure. Travel remains a price-sensitive category, and online travel agencies often compete aggressively on discounts. But the broader point stands: in a mobile-first market like India, where more of the travel booking journey is moving online, scale is extremely valuable.

Where the Money Comes From

MakeMyTrip’s revenue mix is fairly balanced, though Hotels and Packages now represent the most important part of the business.

Hotels and Packages account for roughly 55% of revenue and are the strongest part of the model. This segment benefits from higher take rates, better margin structure, and greater opportunity for cross-selling. A consumer booking a hotel stay or holiday package typically creates more monetization opportunities than someone booking a standalone flight.

Air Ticketing contributes around 30% of revenue. It remains a large and strategically important category, but structurally it is less attractive than hotels. Airline tickets are easier to compare, consumers are highly price-sensitive, and suppliers have more bargaining power. It drives traffic and engagement, but the margin profile is usually lower.

Bus Ticketing contributes the remaining 15%, largely through redBus. This is an especially interesting segment because it gives MakeMyTrip exposure to a part of the Indian travel market that is both massive and still digitizing. Bus travel is essential across the country, and redBus has become a strong category leader. That makes it more than just a side business. It is a real source of differentiation.

Geographically, the company is still overwhelmingly tied to India, which makes up more than 90% of revenue. International operations exist, including exposure to markets such as the US, Singapore, and the UAE, but these are supporting pieces rather than the core driver. This is fundamentally a company built around the Indian travel consumer.

Why the Segment Mix Matters

The quality of MakeMyTrip’s segment mix is one of the stronger features of the business.

Hotels and Packages combine growth with attractive economics. The supplier base is fragmented, which improves the platform’s negotiating position, especially when it operates at scale. Consumers also tend to prioritize convenience and trust more than pure price when booking higher-value travel. That gives MakeMyTrip more room to monetize effectively.

Air Ticketing is the weakest segment in structural terms. Airlines are larger and more concentrated suppliers. Consumers compare prices aggressively. External factors such as fuel costs and fare volatility can affect booking behavior. Even so, this segment remains important because flights are often the starting point of the travel journey. A company that controls the booking relationship for air travel can often attach hotel, insurance, and other services to that transaction.

Bus Ticketing is a stronger business than many investors may initially assume. redBus has carved out a meaningful niche, and because the category remains relatively underpenetrated digitally, there is still room for continued growth. It also broadens MakeMyTrip’s customer reach beyond the more premium parts of the travel market.

The result is a business that does not rely on a single fragile growth engine. Hotels provide margin strength, flights provide scale and traffic, and buses provide category depth and long-tail growth. That is a healthy combination.

Competitive Positioning

MakeMyTrip competes against domestic players such as EaseMyTrip and Yatra, as well as international travel platforms like Booking Holdings and Expedia. Yet its position in India remains very strong.

The company’s advantage starts with breadth. MakeMyTrip is not just a flight booking app or a hotel marketplace. It offers a full ecosystem that spans several major travel categories and multiple consumer segments. Its brand architecture also helps. MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus each play a distinct role in the market, allowing the company to address different use cases without relying on a single brand identity.

That breadth matters in a market like India, where travel behavior is fragmented across price points, geographies, and transport modes. A company that can serve the budget bus traveler, the domestic leisure flyer, and the hotel customer within one ecosystem has a stronger competitive position than a narrower platform focused on one category.

The company’s market share appears to sit in the roughly 30 to 40% range, which is meaningful in a market of this size. While competition remains intense, MakeMyTrip seems to occupy the strongest position among the major OTAs operating in India.

The Moat

The moat here is not mysterious. It comes from brand, scale, and ecosystem strength.

Brand matters because travel is a trust-based category. Consumers are making time-sensitive purchases, often with relatively large amounts of money, and they want reliability. MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, and redBus have built strong recognition over time, and that matters when customers are deciding where to book.

Scale matters because it improves supplier relationships and operating leverage. A platform with more demand can negotiate more effectively, secure better availability, and spread its technology and customer acquisition costs across a larger base of transactions. Smaller competitors can discount aggressively, but they often lack the broader advantages that come from scale.

The ecosystem matters because it makes the platform more useful over time. A user may arrive to book a flight, but if the same platform also offers hotels, buses, insurance, and other travel-related services, that booking relationship becomes more valuable. Reviews, loyalty features, and repeat usage strengthen this effect. It may not be a pure network effect in the strongest sense, but it does create increasing returns to scale and raises switching costs.

All of this suggests that MakeMyTrip is not simply winning through temporary discounting. It has built real structural advantages.

Industry Structure

The Indian online travel market has characteristics of an oligopoly, even if competition remains active. A few scaled players dominate digital bookings, and the barriers to entry are higher than they may first appear.

The biggest barrier is not building a website or app. It is acquiring users at scale, building trust, integrating supply, handling customer service, and operating profitably through cycles. That is much harder. Travel is also a category where reliability matters enormously. Consumers remember bad experiences, especially around cancellations, refunds, or poor service during disruptions.

The industry is still cyclical. Demand can swing with macro conditions, oil prices, currency moves, or broader uncertainty. COVID showed just how brutal those downturns can be. For that reason, online travel businesses need cash discipline and operating flexibility even when demand looks strong.

Regulation is present but not overwhelming. Tax changes, data privacy requirements, or sector-specific rules can matter, but these do not appear to be the core threat to the business. The larger risk remains the normal travel cycle itself.

Management and Capital Allocation

One of the more reassuring parts of the story is that the company remains founder-influenced and insider ownership is meaningful. That tends to matter in businesses where the path to value creation requires patience.

CEO Rajesh Magow and Chairman Deep Kalra have been central figures in building the company through multiple phases, including rapid growth, intense competition, the pandemic shock, and the return to profitability. The market does not always reward long investment cycles, but management appears to have stayed focused on building durable scale rather than optimizing short-term optics.

Capital intensity is low, which is exactly what investors want in a platform business. Capex remains modest, and the company has generally deployed capital in sensible ways. The acquisition and development of redBus stands out as a particularly strong strategic move. It gave the company a leading position in a major adjacent travel category and added another durable brand to the portfolio.

There is also a difference between growth that consumes capital and growth that benefits from already-laid infrastructure. MakeMyTrip increasingly appears to be moving into the second category.

Strategic Priorities

The next phase of the story likely revolves around deepening its leadership in Indian travel while increasing monetization per customer.

There are several levers here. The first is continued penetration of domestic travel demand, which remains the core opportunity. The second is growth in higher-value categories and ancillary services. The third is improving personalization and conversion through technology, particularly in a mobile-first environment where user experience can materially affect booking behavior.

The company also has optionality. It can expand more aggressively into corporate travel, broaden its offering in experiences and value-added services, or pursue selective M&A where there is a good strategic fit. Because the underlying platform is already built, these extensions can be attractive if executed well.

The key question is not whether there are opportunities. There clearly are. The question is whether management can pursue them without undermining the improved profitability profile the company now has.

Technology and Product

MakeMyTrip is not a deep-tech company, nor does it need to be. This is a distribution platform, and the technology goal is practical: make planning and booking travel easier, faster, and more personalized.

That means investing in search, recommendation systems, supplier integrations, and increasingly AI-enabled personalization. None of this needs to be flashy. It just needs to improve conversion, reduce friction, and increase repeat usage.

This is actually a positive. Some internet companies talk endlessly about innovation while the economics remain weak. MakeMyTrip’s technology spending appears more grounded. It supports the business model rather than distracting from it.

The Bigger Tailwind

Ultimately, the MakeMyTrip thesis rests on a simple macro idea: India is likely to produce far more travel demand over time.

As incomes rise, more consumers travel domestically and internationally. As digital payments and mobile internet penetration increase, more bookings move online. As transport infrastructure improves and the middle class expands, travel becomes a more routine part of consumer life rather than an occasional luxury.

That does not mean growth will be linear. Travel never is. But the long-term backdrop remains attractive, and MakeMyTrip appears to be one of the clearest listed ways to participate in it.

Final View

MakeMyTrip looks like a company that has already done the hard part. It built scale, survived a major industry collapse, defended its position in a competitive market, and finally emerged with real profitability.

That does not make it risk-free. Travel is cyclical, competition remains real, and market enthusiasm can run ahead of fundamentals. But the business itself looks stronger and more durable than the average platform story. It has category leadership, a sensible segment mix, real brand strength, and exposure to one of the most attractive long-term consumer demand stories in the world.

For investors, the question is no longer whether MakeMyTrip is a real business. It clearly is. The more important question is whether this is still an early-stage winner in a market that has much more room to grow.

In that sense, MakeMyTrip is not just an online travel agency. It is one of the cleaner listed plays on the digitization of Indian consumption.

End Note

Thank you for reading. I hope you enjoyed the piece.

If you found it useful, please consider sharing it and subscribing so you do not miss the upcoming revenue prediction on MMYT. In that post, I will model the business through web traffic and app data in an effort to front-run earnings and potentially surface alpha if a meaningful divergence can be identified.

If there are other names you would like to see covered, feel free to leave them in the comments below. And if you have not already, be sure to check out my work on Haypp as well.